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UPDATE: BC NDP expected to form slim majority government

(UPDATE: Oct. 28 @ 6 pm) - The New Democrats and Premier David Eby were on track to win a bare majority government nine days after voters went to the polls in British Columbia, but the final verdict will still require two judicial recounts to become official.

The incumbent NDP ended the final vote count Monday with 47 seats, defeating John Rustad's B.C. Conservatives, who mounted a serious challenge after receiving less than two per cent of the popular vote in the 2020 election.

That's exactly the number of seats needed to secure a majority in the 93-seat legislature. The Conservatives won 44 and the Greens took two.

But Elections BC, the province's independent elections administrator, said two seats, Kelowna Centre and Surrey-Guildford, were so close there would be automatic recounts before the standings of the next legislature are confirmed.

In Kelowna Centre, the Conservatives led the NDP by 38 votes and in Surrey-Guildford, the New Democrats led the Conservatives by 27. The Conservatives actually led in both seats before the last batch of votes was counted Monday and the Surrey seat flipped to the NDP.

<who>Photo Credit: Canadian Press

Elections BC said the timing of the recounts is determined by the court and may include some or all of the ballots and certification envelopes.

Eby said he met with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin earlier Monday and she asked him to form the next government.

"After a close and hard-fought campaign, it's now time to come together to deliver for people," Eby said in a statement. "We will work hard every day to earn the trust you have placed in us."

In a social media post, Rustad said he was proud to have led a party with no seats in the 2020 election to being the Opposition in the next legislature.

"I accept the results of this election. I thank our Elections BC workers for their hard and dedicated work," he posted.

"I am ready to begin the important work of leading B.C.’s official Opposition. B.C.’s Conservative caucus is committed to holding government accountable and advocating for policies that reflect the best interests of all British Columbians."

Eby scheduled a news conference Tuesday at the legislature in Victoria. Rustad also called a news conference in the capital for Tuesday afternoon.

Elections BC officials spent the weekend and Monday counting 43,000 mail-in and 22,000 absentee ballots.

The NDP win is the first time in B.C. history the New Democrats have taken three consecutive elections.

NDP House Leader Ravi Kahlon said he was "glad to see the numbers come in and I'm glad to see we can move forward."

"It's still going to require a lot of co-operation in the legislature," he said in an interview. "We're still going to be reaching out to the Greens to find ways to work with them."

Kahlon said people have been telling him, "we don't want another election, what we want is you guys to work it out."

Kahlon suggested the NDP has plans to find a Speaker from within their ranks despite his party's tight standings.

"We have good people who can do the job," he said.

It was too early to say when the legislature would be recalled, he said, adding one of the first orders of business will be swearing in a new cabinet.

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau said in a statement it appears the parties will have to work together for the legislature to function effectively.

She said earlier the two Green members elected to the legislature could play a pivotal role in the workings of the government.

Messages of congratulations came in late Monday from the B.C. Federation of Labour and the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs.

"This victory marks an important step toward deeper reconciliation, respect for Indigenous rights, and a shared future built on partnership and commitment to address the climate emergency," Grand Chief Stewart Phillip said in a statement.

Rustad's unlikely rise came after he was thrown out of the Opposition in 2022, then known as the BC Liberals, joined the B.C. Conservatives, quickly was acclaimed leader, and steered them to a level of popularity that led to the collapse of his old party, which had changed its name to BC United — all in just two years.

A group of former BC United MLAs running as Independents were all defeated, with Karin Kirkpatrick, Dan Davies, Coralee Oakes, Mike Bernier and Tom Shypitka losing to Conservatives.

Aisha Estey, president of the B.C. Conservative Party, said she spent the weekend in a warehouse watching the counting of mail-in ballots.

In a post on social media, she said: "Elections BC staff have been working tirelessly and doing their best within the confines of the legislation that governs their work."

"Would we have liked mail-ins to be counted closer to (election day)? Sure," she added. "But I saw nothing that caused me concern."


(UPDATE: Oct. 28 @ 3:40 pm) - The NDP appears to have won enough seats to form government in British Columbia, however it is unclear whether it will be a majority or minority.

The Canadian Press is projecting that Premier David Eby’s NDP has won at least 46 seats, with two still too close to call in the ongoing count of absentee ballots.

The threshold for a majority is 47 seats, and the NDP is narrowly leading the B.C. Conservatives in one of the undecided races.

The B.C. Conservatives have won or are leading in 44 seats, while the Green Party has won two seats, in an election that came down to a count of about 22,000 absentee ballots on Monday, nine days after the Oct. 19 vote.

The NDP overtook the Conservatives' 12-vote lead in the closest race of Surrey-Guildford as the count unfolded, and a mid-afternoon update from Elections BC had the NDP in front by 17 votes.

If the NDP lead holds, it will have enough seats for the barest majority, but a judicial recount in Surrey-Guildford is possible, depending on the size of the margin.


(UPDATE: Oct. 28 @ 2:04 pm) - The BC NDP has extended its narrow lead in Surrey-Guildford.

The latest update, issued by Elections BC at 2 pm, has the NDP's Garry Begg ahead of Honveer Singh Randhawa of the Conservative Party of BC by 18 votes.

Begg jumped ahead when the noon update was posted and has seen leads of 14, nine and now 18 votes.

There has also been movement in the close Kelowna Centre riding, as Conservative candidate Kristina Loewen's lead over the NDP's Loyal Wooldridge is now 46 votes.

While today’s absentee vote could finally produce a winner in the election, there could also still be judicial recounts in any riding where the margin is less than 1/500th of all votes cast.

In Surrey-Guildford, where an estimated 19,306 votes were cast, the margin for a judicial recount is about 38 votes or fewer.

– With files from Canadian Press


(UPDATE: Oct. 28 at 1:03 pm): The BC NDP has kept its extremely thin lead in Surrey-Guildford, according to the latest information from Elections BC.

The party's lead, 14 at noon, is now down to nine.

That means that, as things stand, the NDP is still on track to win a majority, with 47 seats.

While today’s absentee vote could finally produce a winner in the election, there could also still be judicial recounts in any riding where the margin is less than 1/500th of all votes cast.

In Surrey-Guildford, where an estimated 19,306 votes were cast, the margin for a judicial recount is about 38 votes or fewer.

– With files from Canadian Press


(UPDATE: Oct. 28 at 12:01 pm): The BC NDP is now ahead in the all-important Surrey-Guildford riding, according to the latest update from Elections BC.

Premier David Eby's party leads in the constituency by 14 votes, having previously been behind to the BC Conservatives.

If the NDP wins Surrey-Guildford and holds onto other leads, it will be elected or leading in 47 seats, which is the threshold for a majority in the legislature.

The Conservatives had been ahead in the closest race of Surrey-Guildford by 12 votes going into the tally, but there were an estimated 226 votes still to count and each hourly update saw that lead whittled away.

In a noon update by the elections authority, the NDP was elected or leading in 47 seats, while John Rustad’s BC Conservatives were leading or elected in 44 and the Greens had won two seats.

<who> Photo credit: Canadian Press </who> David Eby.

A count of more than 43,000 mail-in and assisted telephone votes over the weekend put the NDP within range of victory in Surrey-Guildford, sending the race down to the absentee ballots.

While today’s absentee vote could finally produce a winner in the election, there could still be judicial recounts in any riding where the margin is less than 1/500th of all votes cast.

In Surrey-Guildford, where an estimated 19,306 votes were cast, the margin for a judicial recount is about 38 votes or fewer.

– With files from Canadian Press

(Earlier story: Oct. 28 at 10:51 am): Monday's count of more than 22,000 absentee and special ballots provincewide could finally produce a winner in the election, nine days after the Oct. 19 vote.

Recounts and a tally of mail-in votes failed to settle the contest on the weekend, with neither Premier David Eby's New Democrats nor John Rustad's B.C. Conservatives emerging on Sunday with a majority.

But the mail-in count increased the prospects for an NDP government when the Conservative lead in Surrey-Guildford was cut sharply.

All eyes have been on that Metro Vancouver seat since counting resumed at 9 a.m., with 226 absentee votes to count, and results are being updated hourly on the Elections BC website.

<who> Photo credit: Canadian Press </who> John Rustad (left) and David Eby.

In the first two hours of counting, the Conservative lead in Surrey-Guildford was cut from 12 to 4 votes.

The party went into the weekend's count of mail-in and assisted telephone votes with a lead of 103.

The current standings have the NDP leading or elected in 46 ridings, with the B.C. Conservatives leading or elected in 45 and the Greens with two elected members.

While the makeup of the legislature is expected to become clear on Monday, judicial recounts could still take place after that if the margin in a riding is less than 1/500th of all votes cast.

In Surrey-Guildford, where an estimated 19,306 votes were cast, the margin for a judicial recount is about 38 votes or fewer.

A full hand recount on Sunday in Surrey City Centre resulted in the NDP lead there being reduced by three votes, to 175, while a partial recount in Kelowna Centre saw the Conservative lead cut by four votes, to 68.

That has been a further cut to 60 in the absentee count.

The result of a full recount in Juan de Fuca-Malahat, where the NDP lead by 109 votes, is also to be announced Monday.

Aisha Estey, president of the B.C. Conservative Party, said she spent the weekend in a warehouse watching the counting of mail-in ballots.

In a post on social media, she said: "Elections BC staff have been working tirelessly and doing their best within the confines of the legislation that governs their work."

"Would we have liked mail-ins to be counted closer to (election day)? Sure," she added. "But I saw nothing that caused me concern."

– With files from Canadian Press


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